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Decision Making Under Uncertainty is a Dark Art

Hugh Morgan · March 22, 2021 ·

We make most of our business decisions within tight frames of uncertainty: revenues, costs and personnel are somewhat predictable and so we can manage plans and expectations around them reasonably well.  It gets tougher when things are unpredictable (Who thought a year ago that we would be in the middle of a pandemic this year?) and humans are notoriously overconfident when estimating their ability to make the right call in a fluid or ambiguous situation.  It is the unknown unknowns that kill you.

 

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Additional Reading

  • Game Theory – Britannica
  • Managing Uncertainty in the Covid Era – The British Medical Journal
  • 11 Ways Emotionally Intelligent People Overcome Uncertainty – Entrepreneur

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hugh@hughmorgan.net​

+1 510 282 3784

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